The Strategic Intelligence Analysis, Forecasting, Estimative and Warning Intelligence course follows the iterative processes of the intelligence lifecycle. Strategic analysis requires a breakdown of the complexity’s analysts face during data examination. Keeping the analysis and results relevant is difficult. Analysts need to find ways to organize, rank, and present their findings. Analyst’s always keep a close eye on what the findings will mean to the stakeholders.
Stakeholders need to understand that analysts always work with incomplete and fragmented data. Adversaries work hard to deny analysts the data. Their methods include various types of deception.
This course provides analysts with a framework reducing many of the problems faced with fragmented data.
This course covers the following non-inclusively:
| Strategic Intelligence Analysis, Forecasting, Estimative and Warning Intelligence |
Relevant actors and their capabilities |
| Data, Information, Knowledge and Intelligence |
Inference |
| Knowledge Generation |
Adversary Courses of Action (CoA) |
| Explicitly versus Tacit Knowledge |
CoA advantages and disadvantages |
| Principles of Knowledge Management |
Likelihood and probability in Adversary CoA |
| Monitoring your Business Environment |
Patterns, Trends, Tendencies |
| Analysis Projects |
Estimative Intelligence |
| Analysis Cycle |
The Role of Warning Intelligence |
| Briefing |
Key Warning Factors in Preparations |
| Collection Planning |
What Is Warning? |
| Collecting from Unsuspecting Sources |
Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications |
| Collection from Public Domain |
Fundamentals of Indications Analysis |
| Collection from Images |
Use of Indicator Lists |
| Collection from Things |
Extracting Indications Data |
| Collection Outsourcing |
Indications Chronology |
| Analysis |
Specifics of the Analytical Method |
| Introduction |
How Might they Go to Cyber War? |
| Attributes of strategic analysis |
Cyber Order of Battle Methods |
| Collector - Analyst Relationship |
Analysis of Cyber Mobilization |
| Collector-Analyst Differences |
Recognition of Cyber Buildup |
| Corporate Alignment |
Preparation for Cyber Warfare |
| Organizing a Strategic Analysis Function |
Preoccupation of Leadership / Stakeholders |
| Organizing a solid team |
Cyber Readiness |
| Towards a world-class strategic analysis org |
Magnitude and Redundancy of Preparations |
| Profile of an analyst |
Cyber Wargaming |
| Forecasting |
What is a Cyber Wargame |
| Multiple Scenarios Generation |
Why run a Cyber Wargame |
| Scenario analysis |
Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise |
| Influencers |
Examples of Assessing Timing |
| Link Analysis and Centrality |
Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence |
| Estimates for future planning |
The Problem of Deception |
|
Case Studies and Hands-on |
This course teaches students how to think independently and stay away from the low level tactical approaches we see in daily reports. Strategic, big-picture reviews and assessments that incorporate the social, technical, economic, military, political, legislative, educational, and security, plus demographics, religion and the psychometric (STEMPLES Plus) aspects of an adversary are lost in today's world of current news posing as intelligence. Lecture, Hands-on, Apprenticeship, in-class exercises, student presentations, analytic products, templates, course material—40 CPEs. Books provided by Treadstone 71 with some required read-ahead activities.
