Strategic Intelligence Analysis
Forecasting, Estimative and Warning Intelligence

The Strategic Intelligence Analysis, Forecasting, Estimative and Warning Intelligence course follows the iterative processes of the intelligence lifecycle. Strategic analysis requires a breakdown of the complexity’s analysts face during data examination. Keeping the analysis and results relevant is difficult. Analysts need to find ways to organize, rank, and present their findings. Analyst’s always keep a close eye on what the findings will mean to the stakeholders.

Stakeholders need to understand that analysts always work with incomplete and fragmented data. Adversaries work hard to deny analysts the data. Their methods include various types of deception.

This course provides analysts with a framework reducing many of the problems faced with fragmented data.

This course covers the following non-inclusively:

Strategic Intelligence Analysis, Forecasting, Estimative and Warning Intelligence  Relevant actors and their capabilities
Data, Information, Knowledge and Intelligence Inference
Knowledge Generation Adversary Courses of Action (CoA)
Explicitly versus Tacit Knowledge CoA advantages and disadvantages
Principles of Knowledge Management Likelihood and probability in Adversary CoA
Monitoring your Business Environment Patterns, Trends, Tendencies
Analysis Projects Estimative Intelligence 
Analysis Cycle The Role of Warning Intelligence
Briefing Key Warning Factors in Preparations
Collection Planning What Is Warning?
Collecting from Unsuspecting Sources Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications
Collection from Public Domain  Fundamentals of Indications Analysis
Collection from Images Use of Indicator Lists
Collection from Things Extracting Indications Data
Collection Outsourcing Indications Chronology
Analysis Specifics of the Analytical Method
Introduction How Might they Go to Cyber War?
Attributes of strategic analysis Cyber Order of Battle Methods
Collector - Analyst Relationship Analysis of Cyber Mobilization
Collector-Analyst Differences Recognition of Cyber Buildup
Corporate Alignment Preparation for Cyber Warfare
Organizing a Strategic Analysis Function Preoccupation of Leadership / Stakeholders
Organizing a solid team Cyber Readiness
Towards a world-class strategic analysis org Magnitude and Redundancy of Preparations
Profile of an analyst Cyber Wargaming
Forecasting What is a Cyber Wargame
Multiple Scenarios Generation Why run a Cyber Wargame
Scenario analysis Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise
Influencers Examples of Assessing Timing
Link Analysis and Centrality Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence
Estimates for future planning The Problem of Deception                                 
Case Studies and Hands-on

 

This course teaches students how to think independently and stay away from the low level tactical approaches we see in daily reports. Strategic, big-picture reviews and assessments that incorporate the social, technical, economic, military, political, legislative, educational, and security, plus demographics, religion and the psychometric (STEMPLES Plus) aspects of an adversary are lost in today's world of current news posing as intelligence.  Lecture, Hands-on, Apprenticeship, in-class exercises, student presentations, analytic products, templates, course material—40 CPEs. Books provided by Treadstone 71 with some required read-ahead activities.

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